Friday, January 4, 2008

On the Republican side

Just wanted to add that Johnson County Republicans chose Romney with 32%, followed by Huckabee with 22% - indicating that Huckabee is going to have a hell of a time in New Hampshire.

'Cause Iowa Republicans in general are a pretty born-again bunch, especially in the more rural areas (which is most of the state). But the ones in Johnson County, and specifically the ones in Iowa City, tend to only be Republicans because they're rich. They're really more like Libertarians than true Republicans. Except for Mike Thayer. He's about as socially conservative as they get.

But Granite Staters have a decidedly Libertarian bent. "Live Free or Die" and all that shit. They're Republicans because they want the government to stay out of their business, not on accounta Jesus. So I don't think Huckabee is going to find quite the reception there that he got in Iowa.

In addition, New Hampshire is Romney's back yard. Now, I left New Hampshire before really getting a pulse on how those folks felt about ol' Flip Flop Romney, but I think he'll probably win their primary.

Of course, who knows what the addition of Guiliani will do to the race in New Hampshire? He wrote Iowa off a long time ago, and Iowa voters returned the favor. He isn't in the top three in NH right now, but maybe he'll mention 9/11 again and it'll work this time. We'll know in a few days, I guess.

My prediction for Tuesday, btw, is Clinton-Obama-Edwards, Romney-McCain-Huckabee. Huckabee might climb to second on the momentum of last night, but I don't think it's gonna happen. I think Obama will gain enough ground in the state over the next four days to make Clinton sweat, but I think she'll hold on for the win (she currently has a 12-point lead there). Which will make me happy, because I think the country needs to see a woman do well. But I'm an Obama girl (er, woman) now, so I'll root for an upset.

Any different predictions out there?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Well, I hear that the LT Republicans voted for Fred Thompson. Go figure. :) I always thought they were a particularly nutty group...